Models are an enormously important tool for clarifying your thought. You don't have to literally believe your model - in fact, you're a fool if you do - to believe that putting together a simplified but complete account of how things work... helps you gain a much more sophisticated understanding of the real situation. People who don't use models end up relying on slogans that are much more simplistic than the models. (at his blog.)
Atlantic Array
Greater concern than losing 1.2Gw in the Outer Bristol Channel could be expressed
at the loss of 1.8Gw at the Dogger Bank. The Crown Estates authorised the Zone
for 9.0 GW and yet developers Forewind are planning for only 7.2Gw.
The Dogger Bank is far more suitable for wind-farm development than the Outer
Bristol Channel every could be. It is four times as far from land (125Km) than was
the Array (31Km from Devon - less in places) and the water is only 18m deep -
which allows vessels to anchor safely.
The Relevant Representations for the first stage (called Creyke Beck) have now
been submitted but there is still an opportunity to get involved with stage Two
by checking out the Planning Inspectorate portal website.
The important points are
a) We need a mix of energy supply technologies.
b) The target is 25Gw from wind and the Round Three list had 33Gw - leaving
a signficant contingency margin.
c) Inreasing the base-load from Wind increases the grid-management challenge
and so we should be looking to utilise more predictable resources.
Conclusions:
a) Press to get Dogger Bank expedited (and 1.8Gw cut restored)
b) Assist investment in TRUE marine energy
(Not least in the Bristol Channel area)
Meantime we need to address the looming energy supply crisis by the UK
government applying for a derogation to the 2001 LCPD directive that is
requiring us to close our "back-up" generators by 31st December 2015.
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Crying over spilled misk at the Atlantic Array is pointless.
We need to plan for the 2020s and start NOW.